Neocopernicanism

It’s always astonished me that the existence of planets around other stars was one proposition that scientists seemed hesitant to embrace; I’ve been reading astronomical texts and press-releases for the past 30 years, on-and-off, and my perception is of having experienced very little of:

Yes! The universe is a huge, enormous, unimaginably vast place, and in our galaxy alone there are more than 200,000,000,000 stars, so if you multiply that by the millions of galaxies we can see, the chances that there exist other terrestrial planets, and that upon some of them there are other forms of life that are both alike and very unlike us, are very high indeed…

…and instead quite a large amount of:

We have hypothesised that the gravitational anomaly that we have detected means there may be a large gas giant planet near [some local star] – and therefore there may be at least one planet around at least one other star, although it’s more like Jupiter than Earth and unlikely to harbour anything we’d call life.

We’re just about past that, now, we’ve moved on to the stage of proving other stars have quite complex systems of planets; but why are we still not pointing out the huge, vast enormousness of the universe, and therefore the likelihood of there being life elsewhere in the universe?



Hey, look! Something moved!

I think it’s the same problem Copernicus faced, but writ large and subtly; it’s the total perspective vortex issue; it’s the pale blue dot problem.

The problem – or part of the problem, at least – is that as soon as you take people away from being the centre of creation, the centre of the solar system, the centre of focus for one or more imaginary gods, and instead say “we’re tiny and insignificant on a cosmic scale, albeit we can be precious to one another” – they just totally freak out.[1] Apparently life is “meaningless” without our being relevant to the universe in some way; unless our existence is validated by some sense of cosmic importance then we “might as well all commit suicide”[2].

To which I respond: Well, yeah. You could do that, although that’s kinda dumb. At least if you did we might winnow-out any genetic disposition to believe in that sort of thing, which might benefit the species. Just don’t feel it incumbent to take anyone else with you, m’kay?

I think at some level my fellow astrogeeks understand this, so they conservatively only describe what they can prove, so that “the scientific method” provides a cloak to protect the forces of stupidity (TFOS) from doing a modern-day Galileo to them. Anyone who sticks their neck out and speculates (horror!) had better have the chops to cope with criticism both from TFOS and also from members of the same community who lack the nerve to do the same.

If we could only give every 10 year old in the world a telescope, and a clear night sky; but alas, some idiot would steal the telescope to use as a rangefinder.


[1] Oddly, many folk who are capable of accepting that we don’t need a large religion to hold a society together, are unwilling to extend the concept and admit that we don’t need a large state to do so, either. People are mostly nice, get over it.

[2] Yes, somebody has said this to me.

Comments

7 responses to “Neocopernicanism”

  1. Stephen Usher

    I’m in the camp who say that it is almost inevitable that “life” in some form or another has happened all over the place in the Universe (and hence galaxy). I’d also say, because of the special properties of carbon and water that they’ll be carbon/water based. Other than that I wouldn’t really like to say how similar to the terrestrial model of “life” it may be.

    Now, as to the other parts of the question as to the type of life. Well, looking back at the history of life on this planet, it seems like a chance even knocked life from being uni-cellular into complex multi-cellular farms and also began the arms race which produced more and more complex life. So, for the vast majority of the life out there for which such an event didn’t happen, it’s scum. Given that it took well over 2 billion years for the circumstances to appear on Earth I’d say it’s probably a very low probability of this happening, let’s grab a figure out of the air, 0.0001% probability.

    As for intelligent life, the arms race probably produces a lot of that. Just look at the current population of the Earth. Whales, birds, apes, they’ve all developed it. It’s quite likely that there were intelligent dinosaurs too. So, once complex life has evolved intelligence is probably an automatic extension of the arms race. Probability 100%.

    However, we now come to technological intelligence, which is tricky. Many animals use tools currently. A few even modify them to make them better. However, it requires both technological intelligence *AND* the physical attributes to enable that intelligence to be used to create complex technology. That’s probably quite rare.

    Now, even if you get all of those there’s no guarantee that this will actually develop into a full high technology civilisation.

    Oh, and then there’s the probability of two of these existing at the same time….

    Hmm… I think the Drake equation needs tweaking a bit. So, in conclusion I somewhat doubt that there are currently any other “aliens” out there at the moment in the Galaxy, so we are the eyes of the Universe at the moment. However, there’s probably lots of goo and slime! 🙂

  2. Most astronomers I’ve known take your first thought as read, but I suspect it’s not very interesting to them because it doesn’t really predict much that can be measured or say how the Universe has evolved over time.

    I came across the Drake Equation[1] while still at secondary school through Cosmos (both TV series and book – thank you Carl!) and what it seems like to me is that cosmologists and observational astronomers are essentially trying to pin down limits on the terms of the equation (deliberately or accidentally).

    The Universe may be vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big – but that itself raises the issue that most of what we see now is billions of years old, it’s far more interesting to know what’s the likelihood of finding intelligent life within a distance of just a few light years. Think of it as an extra term on the Drake Equation.

  3. Oops, forgot the link to the Drake Equation!

    [1] – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

  4. I filled in my “best guess” for terms in the Drake Equation (before reading what the current view of those values is) and got 10^-15 technological civilizations per galaxy (well actually the probably of one or more other technologically advanced civilizations in the Milky Way, but I’ll rashly treat ours as an average galaxy for the purposes at hand). Okay that could leave a fair few civilizations out there but the next could be “far” away (to borrow a phrase from George Hrab). Although with my estimates life itself is a lot more common than technological civilizations.

    I think one can rationally make a case for technological civilizations being incredibly rare without claiming any special teleological significance for our own. Although I sometimes wonder if Douglas Adams might of hit it with Zaphod being the cause…..

  5. sigh.

    http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap100704.html

    Companion of a Young, Sun-like Star Confirmed

    Credit: Gemini Observatory, D. Lafreniere, R. Jayawardhana, M. van Kerkwijk (Univ. Toronto)

    Explanation: The first direct image of an extrasolar planet orbiting a star similar to our Sun has been confirmed. Located just 500 light-years away toward the constellation Scorpius, the parent star, cataloged as 1RXS J160929.1-210524, is only slightly less massive and a little cooler than the Sun. The star is, however, much younger, a few million years old compared to the middle-aged Sun’s 5 billion years. This sharp infrared image shows the young star’s planetary companion positioned above and left of center. The planet is estimated to have a mass about 8 times the mass of Jupiter, and orbit a whopping 330 times the Earth-Sun distance from its parent star. The young planetary companion is still hot and relatively bright in infrared light, likely due to the heat generated during its formation by gravitational contraction. In fact, such newborn planets are easier to detect before they age and cool and become much more faint. The discovery image, shown above, was taken in 2008 but confirmed only recently by noting that the planet stayed with its parent star as background stars slightly shifted over time.

  6. ray

    Laplace’s claim to fame could be that he took Poisson’s equation … and set it equal to zero. What we need is for somebody to do the same with the Green Bank formula. I mean, what are the odds that one of the multitude of probabilities involved is actually to zero? There is no life, never has been, anywhere else in the entire Universe, that’s what I say – simple! Which means we can concentrate on …

    … giving a telescope to every 10 year old. Wish I could share your enthusiasm. But kids these days have an attention span less than the Planck time.

    Thanks for the apod link. When I was a kid I never expected to see anything like that in my lifetime.

    Dealing with the pale blue dot, I think Kurt Vonnegut put it well: “We are here on Earth to fart around”.

  7. It is amazing how many people will come up with “We might as well all commit suicide” over things. I have heard that from astrophysicists over whether the universe was closed or not. Complete atheist, but thought that life had meaning if the universe was closed but none if it was open. Another one on whether the universe expanded at a steady rate or accelerated.. I heard he left the field after acceleration was shown.

    In the end, I think its just human biological nature to come up with some sort of religion/belief system about things even if we can argue that we have mathematical proofs to show it all works out. I figure that the same parts of the brain that get turned on by one are turned on by another.. its what keeps you going when you are sure that you can get a Unified field theory when everything else says its not happening :).

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