Gartner. Gotta love ’em. I don’t expect unbounded growth, but they are looking at the wrong metrics.

They’re staring at the finger, not at what the finger points.

(Via)

BBC News

The blogging phenomenon is set to peak in 2007, according to technology predictions by analysts Gartner. The analysts said that during the middle of next year the number of blogs will level out at about 100 million.

The firm has said that 200 million people have already stopped writing their blogs.

Gartner has made 10 predictions, including stating that Vista will be the last major release of Windows and PCs will halve in cost by 2010.

Gartner analyst Daryl Plummer said the reason for the levelling off in blogging was due to the fact that most people who would ever start a web blog had already done so.

He said those who loved blogging were committed to keeping it up, while others had become bored and moved on.

“A lot of people have been in and out of this thing,” Mr Plummer said.

“Everyone thinks they have something to say, until they’re put on stage and asked to say it.”

Last month blog tracking firm Technorati reported that 100,000 new blogs were being created every day, and 1.3 million blog posts were written.

Technorati is tracking more than 57 million blogs, of which it believes around 55% are “active” and updated at least every three months.

Gartner also predicted that:

By 2010, the average total cost of ownership of new PCs will fall by 50%

By 2010, 60% of the worldwide cellular population will be “trackable” via an emerging “follow-me internet”

By the end of 2007, 75% of enterprises will be infected with undetected, financially motivated, targeted malware that evaded their traditional perimeter and host defences